Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2017 Sep 23 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 23-Sep 25 2017 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 23-Sep 25 2017

            Sep 23     Sep 24     Sep 25
00-03UT        1          3          4     
03-06UT        2          2          4     
06-09UT        1          1          3     
09-12UT        1          1          3     
12-15UT        2          1          3     
15-18UT        2          4          2     
18-21UT        2          3          2     
21-00UT        3          4          3     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 23-Sep 25 2017

              Sep 23  Sep 24  Sep 25
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 23-Sep 25 2017

              Sep 23        Sep 24        Sep 25
R1-R2           15%           15%           15%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts on days one through three (Sep 23-25) due to the anticipated
return of old Region 2673 (S09, L=119).

Slike sonca v realnem času

Click for time-lapse image of the sun
SOHO EIT 284 image of the sun
Mauna Loa Solar Image
Latest Mauna Loa image of the Sun

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

Current Sunspots
Sončeve nevihte

Solar Radiation Sončeve nevihte: Tok protonov prikazuje podatke za zadnje 3 dni najnevarnejšega dela sončeve nevihte; Sončno sevanje.

Na vertikalni osi je prikazana vrednost energije delcev od 101 do 105 MeV. Horizontalna os prikazuje trajanje Sončeve nevihte. Razlago prikazanih vrednosti, dobimo v tabeli.
Solar Storm Index Radijske motnje: Ta graf prikazuje vrednost Sončevih žarkov-X za zadnje 3 dni, v delu, ko Sončeva nevihta povzroči radijske motnje.

Razlago vrednosti na grafu poišči v tabeli.  motene frekvence
Geomagnetic Storm Index Geomagnetne nevihte Graf prikazuje moč geomagnetnih neviht. Vertikalna os prikazuje vrednost Kp (vrednosti Kp <5 niso pomembne), horizontalna trajanje. Razlago vrednosti razberemo iz tabele.

Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind

Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Images of the solar corona
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO).
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.
Solar X-ray Flux
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux
This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites.
Satellite Environment Plot
Graph showing Real-Time Satellite Environment Plot
The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.

Solar Cycle

Sun Spot Number Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression.
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression.
Ap Progression
Graph showing Ap Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression.

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES

Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.

Širjenje radijskih valov


image Radio Map
IPS Space Weather

Monitor Sončeve aktivnosti

Monitor Sončeve aktivnovnosti, ki se nahaja pod izbirnim menijem na levi strani prikazuje aktivnost žarkov-X in se nanaša na graf na tej strani, ki kaže tok žarkov-X.
NORMAL Tok Sončevih žarkov-X ni aktiven (<1.00e-6 W/m^2).
ACTIVE Tok Sončevih žarkov-X je aktiven (>=1.00e-6 W/m^2).
M CLASS FLARE Zaznan je bil Sončev blišč reda M (>= 1.00e-5 W/m^2).
X CLASS FLARE Zaznan je bil Sončev blišč reda X (>= 1.00e-4 W/m^2).
MEGA FLARE Zaznan je bil izjemen dogodek Sončevih žarkov-X (>= 1.00e-3 W/m^2).


Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of:
NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR)

Space Weather links:
3-Day Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity
Space Weather Overview
LASCO Coronagraph
Real-Time Solar Wind
Space Weather Advisory Outlooks
Space Weather Forecast Disussions
Space Weather Alerts, Watches and Warnings
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)
The Very Latest SOHO Images

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